Australia’s economic growth into 2050. Our greatest boom period to date ?
Posted on : 27-10-2009 | By : jamiemcintyre | In : Global Credit Crisis, Jamie McIntyre, Property
Tags: American Recession, Australian Economic Boom, property market
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It’s an interesting question and one I’d suggest is highly probable that yes, Australia is headed for an economic boom over the next 40 years to 2050, larger than what we’ve seen ever before.
But Jamie weren’t you even suggesting a year ago the world would go close to a depression and the US is in all sorts of trouble and headed for a W recession?
Correct I was. And I haven’t actually changed my mind.
What’s changed is this:
What happens in the US no longer will affect us like it used to.
They will become less significant economically to us and to the world for that matter.
Why?
The Eastern Economies will take over as the new leaders of economic success led by China and India whilst Western Economies head into decline, particularly the US.
Australia is uniquely placed as one of the few developed Western Economies that will avoid a decline, but actually boom largely thanks to our trading relationship with China.
Australia has often in the past been referred to as a lucky country, but now that phrase will have a much more pertinent meaning as we truly are luckier than ever imagined.
The US decline and crash no longer has to affect us.
Their stock market when it crashes in the future again no longer has to affect our stock market, although it may still cause some investors to get nervous until they can become confident that we are largely divorced from the US economy and market.
I mean even the recession we suffered was not based on fundamentals, but largely from the negative sentiment of the US crisis which became a Global Credit Crisis.
This wasn’t necessary as the fundamentals in Australia were solid and now that we’ve escaped the Global Credit Crisis it’s becoming apparent that we need to cease thinking if the US is in trouble that we are somehow as well.
The Global Credit Crisis really should have been called the Imploding of the US, which I’ve been warning about for many years due to the Federal Reserve Banking System they have controlled by the Private Banks, the same banks that caused the problem or offer solutions which largely benefit the banks and rob the American tax payer.
But that’s a whole other article and no longer our concern.
Australia should prepare for a massive immigration boom as well.
And not just from developing nations, but expect large immigration requests from declining Western Nations, in particular the US and the UK.
Australia has the rare opportunity for a sparsely populated country to become not only the envy of the world, but a significant economic power of the 21st Century as we ride the massive wave of prosperity that China and India will create.
Our only concern is our large Current Account Deficit which can create volatility in our exchange rate, which as you know can go from 98 cents US to 63 cents within a matter of months.
How can you prosper from this economic boom?
There will be ample job opportunities created along with business opportunities with China and Asia continuing to expand. Plus the boom will create a booming domestic economy bringing prosperity to many areas of the economy.
Plus the Stock Market and Property Markets will boom, ensuring investors can also reap the benefits.
Let’s hope this time though our Governments will learn to cap their spending and put large surpluses aside so we can build a sovereign wealth fund to equal the likes of Norway and Dubai, so when we run out of commodities then we have sufficient investments to live off as a country.










Nice post, definitely food for thought. Would be interesting to know how far out the Oz property markets forecast to get an idea on % increase. Do they forecast 10+ years? Certainly if there’s going to be an influx of people and jobs, property would surely be the right move.
Thanks for some valuable insight. It’s great to get a feel for what to expect, everyone talks about uncertain times but a with a few facts like above we can get a feel for whats to come and act accordingly. Thanks Jamie, will be watching your blogs for more.
Thanks Jamie for some valuable insight about what we can expect in the coming years. Everyone talks about ‘uncertain times’ but with the information above giving us a feel for what to expect we can position ourselves to make the most of it. I will be following your blog for more.
Are you not concerned by the fact that China as a result of it’s 30 year old “one child policy” has a very quickly aging population and will very soon (10-15 years) have an unmanageably large number of old people needing care. This will no doubt have serious economic implications. Also China’s GDP is largely made from providing cheap labor to western countries, so if the standard of living goes up in China and it’s no longer cheap to make things there where is all the growth going to come from? Serious Growth needs a Surplus that can’t be provided purely internally.
India doesn’t have the same aging population problem but it is extremely corrupt and the Indians can’t innovate nor do they have any physical goods on the Global market. I mean how many things can you think of that you have in your home are made in India? 54% of India’s GDP is services (out sourcing), so if there standard of living increases and there no longer cheap then over night there overseas services income will die. China at least has factories that will delay the decline.
I think Australia is a lucky country and that we may have some good times ahead maybe the next 5-10 years and Australia will have a lot of immigration from worse off countries. But short of major changes in energy technologies and demographic make up. The up side is likely to be short lived and the down side that will follow is likely to be unprecedented.
Roland